The much-anticipated April 20 Bitcoin (BTC $63,029) halving is just a few days away, but Bitwise Asset Management said that market activity in the month that follows the event has historically been weak.
Bitwise mentioned previous price movement in an April 16 X post. The company has seen price drops for the previous three halvings of Bitcoin, but in the year that followed, the price had at least triple-digit percentage point gains.
Bitcoin increased by 9% in the month following the 2012 halving, but it increased by 8,839% in the following year.
During the 2016 halving, a similar pattern was observed: Bitcoin gained 285% to reach its peak of $20,000 in 2017 after falling 10% the next month. Once more in 2020, the month after the halving witnessed a 6% price increase, and the year after saw a 548% pump.
Bitwise stated, “The picture reveals an intriguing pattern, but the data is limited.” “The market undervalues the long-term effects of the halving but prices in the short-term effects.”
For the first time, prior to its halving, Bitcoin has reached an all-time high within the current market cycle.
The cryptocurrency dropped 16% to a low of $61,500 after reaching its current top of $73,679 on March 13.
Business CEOs have similar short-term pessimism. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, projected on April 13 that a $5 billion miner sell-off may occur following the halving, which would put negative pressure on markets.
CEO of Marathon, Fred Thiel, announced that the rally that would have followed the halving had already been factored in.
The trader and researcher Rekt Capital published a list of market correction magnitudes since the bear market bottom of 2022 on X on April 16.
There were five notable declines, with percentages ranging from 18% to 23%. The markets have now dropped 16% and indicated that more declines may be ahead.
Cold Blooded Shiller, a fellow expert, hinted that Bitcoin might drop to about $51,000 by pointing out that 30% declines were usual.